Newcomers, counted.
On October 1, 2024 there were 3,149,131 people in Canada on temporary status. On April 1, 2026 there were 2,558,562. The population itself is 187,499 lower than it was a year earlier. Two quarters have now done that — January 1, 2026 and April 1, 2026 — and none had in the 80 years the quarterly series has been kept.
That does not settle the argument. It fixes its tense. The intake of 2024 was the largest in 78 years of records and the country started 0.21 homes for every net new resident that year, against the 0.42 that would have housed them. Both of those are past tense and both are true. What is happening now is a different sentence, and it is the one below.
Every figure on this page carries the date it was measured and the direction it is moving, because this subject is argued in the present tense about numbers that are two years old. None of them is graded. The Fire ranks jurisdictions and outcomes; it does not rank people.
Where it stands
15 figures, each with its date and its direction
This table is first because reaching for a number in the middle of an argument is what this page is for. Every row carries the date it was measured and what it has done since: read both before quoting the figure. Where a number is a two-year-old estimate the row says so, rather than letting the reader assume otherwise.
-
People in Canada
41,417,056
as of
April 1, 2026 Falling. −187,499 against the same quarter a year earlier, and the third consecutive quarter to come in below the one before it. Two quarters have now come in below their own year-earlier figure; no quarter did between 1946 and 2025. Table 17-10-0009 -
Non-permanent residents
2,558,562
as of
April 1, 2026 Falling. −590,569 from the October 1, 2024 peak of 3,149,131, over 18 months. Table 17-10-0121 -
Temporary residents as a share of the population
6.18 %
as of
April 1, 2026 Falling. 7.59 % at the October 1, 2024 peak. The published target is 5 % by the end of 2026. Table 17-10-0121 -
Study permit holders only
394,220
as of
April 1, 2026 Falling. −291,615 from the January 1, 2024 peak of 685,835 — a fall of 43 %. Table 17-10-0121 -
Work permit holders only
1,296,046
as of
April 1, 2026 Falling. −270,481 from the January 1, 2025 peak of 1,566,527. This is the largest single category and it turned latest. Table 17-10-0121 -
Asylum claimants and protected persons
525,479
as of
April 1, 2026 Rising. The only non-permanent category at its highest recorded value on the April 1, 2026 reading. It is counted here because a page that only showed the falling categories would be doing the thing this site exists to not do. Table 17-10-0121 -
Permanent residents admitted
393,752
as of
calendar 2025 Falling. −18.6 % against 2024, which was the highest year in a series beginning in 1946. Table 17-10-0040 -
Non-permanent residents arriving
496,278
as of
calendar 2025 Falling. −47.5 % against 2024. This is Statistics Canada’s demographic count of people entering the non-permanent resident population, which is not the same series as IRCC’s planned arrivals. Table 17-10-0040 -
Non-permanent residents leaving
957,966
as of
calendar 2025 Rising. +74.7 % against 2024. Departures exceeded arrivals by 461,688 in 2025; in 2024 arrivals exceeded departures by 396,606. Table 17-10-0040 -
Births minus deaths
+31,206
as of
calendar 2025 Falling. 371,373 births against 340,167 deaths. 2024 was +34,183. Without net migration the population changes by this figure alone. Table 17-10-0059 -
Homes started
259,028
as of
calendar 2025 Rising. +5.6 % against 2024. All areas of Canada, starts rather than completions. Table 34-10-0135 -
Homes started per net new resident
0.54
as of
calendar 2025 Rising. 0.21 in 2024. Break-even is 0.42 at the 2.4 average household of the 2021 census. Almost all of the recovery is the denominator falling, not the numerator rising — /homes works that through. Table 34-10-0135 -
Foreign-born share of the population
22.2 %
as of
2024 estimate Rising over the long run. 15.3 % in 1990. This vintage is 2024 and therefore predates most of the fall recorded in the rows above it; it is not a current reading and is not used as one here. World Bank SM.POP.TOTL.ZS -
Births per woman
1.25
as of
2024 estimate Falling. 1.55 in 2017. Replacement is about 2.1. This is the number the other side of the argument raises, and it is on this page for that reason. World Bank SP.DYN.TFRT.IN -
Share of the population aged 65 and over
20.3 %
as of
2025 estimate Rising. 17.1 % in 2018. Every person counted here was already born; this figure is close to fixed for the next two decades whatever any levels plan says. World Bank SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
The levels
What the series actually did
Three charts, because the argument is usually had over one. The first is the population, the second is who is here temporarily, the third is who was admitted permanently. All three turn, and they turn at different times.
Population change, quarter by quarter
Each bar is the change in the population estimate from the previous quarter, July 1, 2012 to April 1, 2026. The level is plotted nowhere on this page: an axis that starts at zero on a figure of 41 million draws a straight line, and an axis that does not start at zero draws whatever the person who chose the baseline wanted. The change is the honest way to show a turn.
1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0. Quarterly estimates are dated to the first day of the
quarter.Non-permanent residents, by type
The stack is the whole non-permanent population: four permit categories and the asylum group, which together sum to the headline figure. The shades carry no meaning beyond telling the bands apart. The series begins in July 1, 2021, which is where Statistics Canada’s type breakdown begins — not where the phenomenon begins.
Permanent residents admitted, 1946–2025
Calendar years, summed from quarterly components of international migration. 2024 is the largest year in the record and it is marked. 2025 is −18.6 % below it.
The number that is rising. Every band in the second chart is below its own peak except one. Asylum claimants and protected persons stood at 525,479 on April 1, 2026, the highest reading in the series. That category is governed by a different body of law from the permit categories and is not set by the levels plan in the same way, which is why a plan that cuts permits does not move it.
Where Canada sits
Three rankings, and a fourth the page declines to use
A rank without the size of the field is a rhetorical device rather than a measurement, so the field is printed beside every one. Position is by size, highest first, in every row — no series is flipped so that Canada comes out well. The year is the most recent in which both Canada and the United States reported, and the rank is computed inside that year only. Aggregates — “World”, “OECD members”, “High income” — are removed before ranking; 217 economies remain.
| Measure | Canada | Rank | Of | United States | Year | Highest three |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign-born share of population, % | 22.2 | 42 | 216 | 15.2 | 2024 | Qatar 76.7; United Arab Emirates 74.0; Monaco 70.2 |
| Births per woman | 1.25 | 192 | 217 | 1.63 | 2024 | Chad 6.03; Somalia, Fed. Rep. 6.01; Congo, Dem. Rep. 5.98 |
| Population aged 65 and over, % | 20.3 | 37 | 217 | 18.4 | 2025 | Monaco 36.0; Japan 30.0; Puerto Rico (US) 25.3 |
What this ranking cannot do. The foreign-born share is a 2024 estimate of migrant stock, and the fall recorded higher up this page happened mostly after it. Quoting 22.2 % as a present-tense fact would be the exact error this page was built to avoid. It is here because it is the best internationally comparable figure that exists, and because 15.3 % in 1990 rising to 22.2 % in 2024 is a real long-run fact whatever the last two years did. World Bank SM.POP.TOTL.ZS, updated 2026-07-13.
Canada also ranks 5 of 217 on net migration for 2025 at 326,204 people. That figure is a modelled United Nations projection rather than a Canadian administrative count, and it disagrees with Statistics Canada’s own components for the overlapping period. It is printed here because leaving out a number that cuts against the page would be worse, and not used anywhere in the arithmetic below.
The ratio
Homes started per net new resident
This is the figure the argument usually turns on, and it belongs to /homes, which holds the full record back to 1948 and the case against reading it too hard. It is recomputed here from the same two tables rather than copied, so that the two pages cannot drift apart. Break-even — one home for every household of new arrivals — is 0.42, from the 2.4-person average household of the 2021 census.
At the 2025 build rate, Canada houses
621,667 net new residents a year
259,028 homes started, multiplied by 2.4 people per household. In 2024 the population grew by 1,181,462 — 1.90 times that figure. In 2025 it grew by 483,757, or 0.78 times. Both inputs are printed above so the multiplication can be checked; neither is a forecast.
| Year | Homes started | Population change | Homes per net new resident | Against break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 195,535 | +287,233 | 0.68 | 1.63× |
| 2016 | 197,915 | +376,062 | 0.53 | 1.26× |
| 2017 | 219,763 | +441,811 | 0.50 | 1.19× |
| 2018 | 212,843 | +514,999 | 0.41 | 0.99× |
| 2019 | 208,685 | +545,875 | 0.38 | 0.92× |
| 2020 | 217,880 | +442,584 | 0.49 | 1.18× |
| 2021 | 271,198 | +227,034 | 1.19 | 2.87× |
| 2022 | 261,849 | +648,421 | 0.40 | 0.97× |
| 2023 | 240,267 | +1,063,106 | 0.23 | 0.54× |
| 2024 | 245,367 | +1,181,462 | 0.21 | 0.50× |
| 2025 | 259,028 | +483,757 | 0.54 | 1.29× |
The strongest thing to say against this number. The 2025 reading of 0.54 is not a building recovery. Starts rose +5.6 % on 2024; the ratio rose +157.8 %. Nearly all of the movement is the denominator. A ratio that improves because fewer people arrived has told you about arrivals, not about houses — and on the numerator alone, Canada has started between 5.5 and 7.1 homes per thousand people every year since 2015, through governments of both parties. /homes makes that case at length and this page will not pretend it is weak.
The other side
The best argument against reading any of this as a win
Stated as strongly as the people who hold it would state it, and placed here rather than in a footnote, because a page that only carries one side of an argument is a pamphlet.
Every person who will be 65 in 2050 has already been born. Canada had 20.3 % of its population aged 65 and over in 2025, 37 of 217 economies, and 1.25 births per woman in 2024 against a replacement rate near 2.1. Births exceeded deaths by +31,206 in 2025 — 0.17 times the size of the latest annual population fall, in the other direction, and shrinking. Cut intake and the arithmetic that follows is not a pause. It is a smaller working-age population paying for a larger retired one, and no levels plan can undo it inside twenty years because the people are not there to be found.
What the numbers on this page cannot settle. Nothing here measures whether a given level of intake is right. The population series says how many people are here. The housing series says how many homes were started. The ratio says how those two moved against each other. Whether the answer is fewer arrivals, more homes, both, or a different question entirely is an argument about what Canada should be, and this site does not have a table for that. It has the counting. The arguing is yours.
What was promised
The plan Parliament was actually given
Immigration levels are tabled, not announced into the air. The figures below are parsed out of IRCC’s own notice at build time rather than transcribed, so that a revision shows up as a broken build instead of a stale number. The newest plan listed on IRCC’s notices index as of 2026-09-18 is 2025-2027, which is the one quoted here.
| Planned | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent resident admissions | 395,000 367,000–436,000 | 380,000 352,000–416,000 | 365,000 338,000–401,000 |
| Temporary resident arrivals | 673,650 604,900–742,400 | 516,600 435,250–597,950 | 543,600 472,900–614,250 |
| — of which workers | 367,750 | 210,700 | 237,700 |
| — of which students | 305,900 | 305,900 | 305,900 |
The goal, in the plan’s own words. “…reducing the share of temporary residents to 5% of the total population by the end of 2026.” The share stood at 6.18 % on April 1, 2026. Reaching 5 % of the April 1, 2026 population would mean about 2,070,853 non-permanent residents — 487,709 fewer than are counted now, with 105 days to go. IRCC 2025–2027 levels plan
Two things called arrivals. The plan’s 673,650 temporary arrivals for 2025 and Statistics Canada’s 496,278 non-permanent resident inflows for 2025 are not the same series and are not differenced anywhere on this page. One is a programme target counted on admission; the other is a demographic estimate of entry into a resident population, and it nets differently against people already in the country. Where both appear, they appear as two numbers.
What it would take
The gap, as a number you can move
Everything above this line is measurement. This section is not. It is two dials and the arithmetic between them, printed in numbers you can change, because a projection whose assumptions are hidden is an opinion wearing a number’s clothes. The page does not say which dial to turn. Turning either one closes the gap; they are different countries.
Homes started per net new resident, 2015–2025, and one projected year
The solid line is measured. The dashed segment and the open point are the settings below, drawn in the grammar this site uses everywhere for “assumed”. The dashed horizontal is break-even at 0.42.
Hold the population growing at per cent a year — the 1946–2026 average is 1.54, 2025 as measured was 1.18 and 2023 was 2.73 — and Canada adds … people a year. Housing them at the 2.4-person household of the 2021 census takes … homes.
Build homes a year — 2025 was 259,028, and the highest year in the whole CMHC record is 273,203 in 1976 — and the ratio comes out at … against break-even 0.42.
The gap, at these two settings
…
…
| Annual population growth | Rate | People added | Homes needed | Gap at 2025 starts | Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No growth | 0.00 % | — | — | — | — |
| Half a per cent | 0.50 % | 207,085 | 86,286 | +172,742 | 1.25 |
| 2025, as measured | 1.18 % | 487,277 | 203,032 | +55,996 | 0.53 |
| The 1946–2026 average | 1.54 % | 636,151 | 265,063 | −6,035 | 0.41 |
| Two per cent | 2.00 % | 828,341 | 345,142 | −86,114 | 0.31 |
| 2023, as measured | 2.73 % | 1,132,674 | 471,947 | −212,919 | 0.23 |
What this arithmetic ignores, on purpose. It counts net new residents and homes started. It does not count the homes the people already here need and do not have, household formation among them, demolitions, the difference between a start and a finished home, or where in the country either happens. Every one of those makes the real requirement larger than the figure above. The gap printed here is a floor, not an estimate.
Something to do about it
Four places this argument is actually decided
Each of these is sourced as well as the numbers above it, because a page that ends in “write your MP” without a date, a document or a name has ended in a feeling.
By November 1 each year
The Minister must table a report, and the next levels plan with it
Section 94(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act: “The Minister must, on or before November 1 of each year or, if a House of Parliament is not then sitting, within the next 30 days on which that House is sitting after that date, table in each House of Parliament a report on the operation of this Act in the preceding calendar year.” Section 94(2)(b) requires that report to state the number of people who became permanent residents and the number projected to become permanent residents in the following year. That is the document the next plan arrives inside, and the deadline is fixed by statute rather than by a press office.
Next deadline: 1 November 2026 — 44 days from this build. IRPA s.94(1); Act current to 2026-07-21, last amended 2026-03-26.
Sits when the House sits
The Standing Committee on Citizenship and Immigration
CIMM is the committee that studies the levels plan, calls the Minister and departmental officials, and reports to the House. Its meeting notices, evidence transcripts and reports are public and searchable, and briefs can be submitted to a study while it is open.
Already published
The figure worth quoting, and where it comes from
“Canada started 259,028 homes in 2025. At the 2.4-person average household of the 2021 census that houses 621,667 net new residents a year. In 2024 it added 1,181,462.” Three sources, all public: Table 34-10-0135, Table 98-10-0039, Table 17-10-0009. The multiplication is one line and can be redone in front of whoever doubts it.
Say added, not adds. The 2024 figure is past tense and the current one is +483,757.
On this site
The pages that argue the other way
/homes holds the full housing record back to 1948 and makes the case that the ratio above is mostly a story about the denominator. /vs puts Canada beside other economies on fertility, age structure and the rest, which is where the argument for intake lives. /mp will find the member who votes on it in your riding. /corrections is where this page goes when it is wrong.
Method
Every source, and four things this page cannot do
- Table 17-10-0009 — Population estimates, quarterly. Vector 1, coordinate
1.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0, series 1946-01-01 to 2026-04-01. - Table 17-10-0121 — Estimates of the number of non-permanent residents by type, quarterly. Vector 1566927590, members 1, 8, 9, 10, 11, 2, series 2021-07-01 to 2026-04-01.
- Table 17-10-0040 — Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly. Immigrants, non-permanent resident inflows and outflows; calendar years 1946 to 2025.
- Table 17-10-0059 — Estimates of the components of natural increase, quarterly. Births and deaths, calendar years.
- Table 34-10-0135 — Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, housing starts, under construction and completions, all areas, quarterly. All areas, total units, unadjusted.
- Table 98-10-0039 — average household size, census years 1981 to 2021.
- World Bank SM.POP.TOTL.ZS, World Bank SP.DYN.TFRT.IN, World Bank SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS — World Bank indicators, updated 2026-07-13, ranked across 217 economies with aggregates removed.
- IRCC 2025–2027 levels plan — parsed at build time. IRPA s.94(1) — parsed at build time, Act current to 2026-07-21.
- The whole payload behind this page, including every quarter of every series: /data/immigration.json.
One. The population series starts in 1946. A claim that the recent fall is the first since Confederation cannot be checked here and is not made here. What can be checked is that in the 80 years of quarterly estimates Statistics Canada publishes, no quarter came in below its own year-earlier figure until January 1, 2026.
Two. Estimates are revised. Quarterly population and non-permanent resident figures are preliminary for several quarters and are restated, sometimes by tens of thousands. The numbers here are what the tables said on 2026-09-18. A reader comparing this page to a newer one should expect the recent quarters to have moved.
Three. Starts are not homes. A start is a hole in the ground and a promise. Completions would be the better numerator and cannot be used: the all-areas completions series returns nothing after 2022. That limitation is inherited from /homes, where it is set out at length.
Four. Nothing here is a forecast. The only non-measured figures on this page are inside the box with the different border, and they recompute from two fields the reader controls. The levels plan figures are targets published by a department, not outcomes, and they are labelled as targets everywhere they appear.